THE INFLUENCE OF SYRIAN REFUGEES ON POLITICAL, SOCIAL, AND ECONOMIC LIFE IN TURKEY
WPŁYW UCHODŹCÓW SYRYJSKICH NA ŻYCIE POLITYCZNE SPOŁECZNE I EKONOMICZNE W TURCJI
International Relations
Stosunki międzynarodowe
AHMET UFUK TURAN
Warsaw
Note: This is the article version of my master's thesis for 2019.
Abstract
The Syrian refugee crisis has been changing Turkey`s stability since 2011. The issue has been discussed in various leadership meetings and addressed by the most powerful political leaders, the solution is far from reachable as of now. Despite the fact that many countries tried to help finding the consensus, it seems that the more parties are involved, the more issues appear. As a part, Turkish community and by comparing the major fields of the state’s balance prior to the conflict and now, it can be highlighted that many factors have had a negative effect of Turksh well-being - both internationally and domestically. To approach the matter, it is important to analyze three crucial dimensions - economy, society, and politics. While providing the examples from the time before the crisis and describing the current state, it should be possible to prove that the Syrian refugee crisis negatively impacted Turkey and once and for all changed this country.
Keywords: Syria, Refugees, Turkey, economic effects, Social effects, Political influences
Introduction
History has shown that the transition to democracy does not happen immediately after the society decides to move towards a political system where the government is considered to be a representation of people’s interests rather than an authoritative decision maker. The transition process of democratization is different in all currently regarded as democratic states. As a result of history, politics, economy, geopolitics, international position, culture, and many other important factors, the management of the transition should be perceived differently. The most recent instances are the rebellions that arose out of the demands of the Arab people for democracy, freedom, and human rights, which started in Tunisia in 2010. At first, the confrontation with the government has affected many countries in the Middle East and later obtained international significance. The inability to manage the crisis resulted in war and devastation of civil life in the region. As a consequence, in 2011, the Syrian regime's harsh attitude towards the popular uprisings in the Syrian Arab Republic and the subsequent civil war led to the civilian migration. The first Syrian refugee group reached Turkey on April 29, 2011, which can be regarded as the starting point of a massive movement of people who tried to find rescue.
Syrian refugees in Turkey have caused changes in many dimensions: economic, social/cultural, and political. In the meantime, Turkey has attempted to manage the refugee crisis both domestically and internationally. The country has developed the refugees’ registration plan to enable a more coordinated procedure for country entry as well as further settlement in camps. However, as the capacities of the camps are insufficient, refugees living outside the camps live under challenging conditions. Limited capacities to provide comfort to all newcomers result in sad observations that out-of-camp refugees are more likely to commit a crime. As a result, the community’s perception of refugees develops negatively and brings up the issue of the security of Turkish society.
Meanwhile, as the war in the region has not had any improvements in terms of a diplomatic consensus rather than force usage, Syria and neighboring regions have been becoming increasingly uninhabitable, which means that Syrian refugees are not likely to return to their country any time soon. Is the assimilation with another country possible in this case?
So far, the differences in language, lifestyle, culture, history, as well as political and economic limitations have not provided good conditions to ensure integration. The social cohesion policies towards refugees, as well as compulsory legal regulations, are required to conduct a more efficient approach to the matter.
In the first chapter, it is explained how the economy has impacted the topic in terms of determining the employment situation, macroeconomic perspective, the housing market, Turkey's foreign trade, and tourism. In order to provide a better overview of the impact, the economic situation of Turkey before the crisis of Syrian Refugees will be explained. In the second chapter, the matter of the social influences of Syrian Refugees are discussed and, in particular, why the adaptation process might be more complex than expected. The last chapter of the thesis explains the political impacts of Syrian refugees in Turkey. Moreover, political relations between Turkey and the Syrian Civil War need to examine several issues to better understand how Syrians determined the role of the Republic of Turkey in the Syrian Civil War.
Finally, being a part of the Turkish community enables one to provide a personal insight into life in Turkey before and after crises while proving the observations with facts and research. Despite the fact that the literature used for the review of this thesis’s topic is very recent, the analysis is rather based on the sources that state facts and events, rather than provide personal interpretation of the other author. It is valuable that the thesis is written by the person who has experienced the change of Turkish community since the crisis. Last but not least, by analyzing three crucial fields: economy, society, and politics, the final conclusion of the work should refer to the future perspectives of Turkey domestically and internationally.
The impact of Syrian refugees on the Turkish economy
Syrian refugees started to massively escape their country in 2011 due to the internal turmoil in their country. It has negatively influenced the balance of the neighboring countries as well as those that seem to be far away from the Syrian border (Icduygu 2015). Nevertheless, the scale of migration and the scope of conflict have been influencing the international community for almost ten years now. As a result, the complexity of the matter continues to cause irreparable imprints in the lives of communities and individuals, making the problem difficult to solve. (Karaca-Dincer 2013).
Since the crisis began, there has not been any comprehensive plan for addressing the issue. Each affected and involved state has developed its own approach towards the matter, even within the European Union (Ozden 2013). Turkey, in particular, seems to be among the most impacted states, which played a significant role not only in helping itself but also in terms of assisting other European Union countries. Despite various attempts to develop better conditions for the Syrian refugees, it can be estimated that, unfortunately, Syrian refugees have not contributed to the economy of our country so far. What is more, we may currently outline the negative economic effects.
As soon as Syrian refugees entered the market of Turkey, it caused the formation of a negative economic impact. The instability has caused a decrease in the value of Gross National Product in Turkey (GDP) and resulted in higher inflation and an increase in housing prices (Bahcekapili-Cetin 2015). What is even more, one of the major sources of the Turkish economy, tourism, was followed by the decreased interest in traveling to the region that experiences so many issues with managing the newcomers, as well as seems to be an insecure place to travel to due to the unregulated migration movement (Dustmann-Preston 2015).
Syrian refugees have had a negative effect on the Turkish economy. The employment status was the most important one of these effects. The impact of mass migration on the labor market is an essential aspect of the issue. Refugees who are forced to work in the labor markets prefer different forms of work according to their living conditions in and outside of the camps. The previous studies show that the overall impact of mass migration on the labor affected 3,621.330 people in twelve labor markets (Ministry of Internal Affairs General Directorate of Migration Administration nd).
Migrants move to welfare countries; it is a widespread situation, and Syrian refugees claim the services provided are not sufficient: concerns are the exploitation of the welfare state and social security, asylum systems shape the cost (Boswell 2007, pp.593-594). Syrian refugees, after moving to Turkey, have begun to be seen as the cause of the decreasing value of the Turkish economy. In the meantime, it cannot be claimed that Syrian refugees are the only cause; however, the examples above provide enough negative outcomes of the recent demographic changes. The inability of Syrian refugees to adapt to the society they come from leads to social reactions.
‘The impact of immigration on the labor market for natives has long been difficult to pin down for economists. The standard static model would suggest that migration increases supply and thus competition in the local labor market, leading to lower employment and wages of natives (Akgunduz, Van den Berg, and Hassinuk 2015), which means that, according to the critical variables, it is possible to provide a brief overview of the labor markets. From this point of view, the first and foremost variable to be addressed is the population. In the case of the Syrian Refugees, there is a population movement exceeding 3 million. ( Turkey Association of Refugees 2019). Within this number, the accommodation rate in the camps is not even 10%. Therefore, there is a Syrian population that spreads throughout the whole country, especially to the border provinces. The population, which is the primary variable in defining and characterizing the markets, is also a key variable in the formation and distribution of national income in a country (Canbey-Ozguler 2018, p. 46).
Every change affecting the population of the country is reflected in the labor markets and directly affects unemployment and employment (Canbey-Ozguler 2013, p. 43). The transformation process differs in relation to the position of each country in the production, the structure of labor and capital classes, the strength of institutional structures, and sociodemographic characteristics, but it affects and transforms labor markets in developed and developing countries (Acar 2016, p. 53). Syrian refugees settled in the border region in Turkey, and this situation has affected and plagued the local population in Turkey.
After Syrians entered the labor sector and received work permits, an unemployment problem arose for the local population. A rapid increase in the unemployment rate in the country since 2011, after Syrians began to arrive in Turkey, has occurred. The unemployment rate increased from 10.3% to 11.3% in September 2016 and reached 12% at the beginning of 2017(Duruel 2017). Some of the local people believe that they have lost their jobs because of the Syrian refugees. This uncomfortable situation leads to a reaction among local people that job opportunities are taken away. When it comes to the provinces where there are many Syrians, unemployment rates increase in and of themselves (Duruel 2017, p. 214). Mass migration has a direct and indirect impact on labor markets. Analyzing the research with different time dimensions, such as short-term and long-term, may provide a healthier presentation of the situation. It is possible that situations seen as opportunities in the short term may turn into threats. Companies in the border provinces want Syrians to enter the labor market, but they should think about how to bring this into a legal framework. Because of the problems that will arise in case of work accidents, there is a growing reaction among residents, whose business is taken away, which worries businesspeople and may lead to the risk of a social explosion. Besides, companies employing informal workers and the risk of labor market corruption deteriorating are the unfortunate long-run results of the given economic organization. Turkey did not anticipate it, and the Syrian refugees continue to increase significantly day by day. The Republic of Turkey Ministry of Interior General Directorate of Migration Administration, with biometric data to be recorded in Turkey as of May 16, 2019, announced the number of Syrians under temporary protection. According to the statement, the number of registered Syrians in Turkey was a total of 3 million 606 thousand 737 persons, an increase of 122 thousand persons compared to the previous month. 1 million 953 thousand 126 of these people are men, 1 million 653 thousand 611 are made up of women (Refugees Association 2019).
For ages, due to its geopolitical position, Turkey has been a major country to connect the Middle East market and Europe. Turkey became a member of the Economic Cooperation Organization in 1985, the Black Sea Countries Economic Cooperation Organization (BSEC) in 1992, World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, and the formation of the D-8, also Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the World Customs Organization (WCO), and the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) in 1997. It became difficult to find new markets, with the increasing competition among countries in the global economy (Republic of Turkey Ministry of Trade). The inability to find consensus with the World Trade Organization to meet the current needs of countries forced them to enter into bilateral or regional trade agreements. The most common of these agreements is the Free Trade Agreement.
In 2002, Turkey-Syria relations within the scope of tourism were one of the areas affected in a positive way. As a result of the close relations based on cooperation, a High-Level Strategic Cooperation Agreement was signed between the two countries in 2009, which envisages a joint cooperation on political, economic, health, education, approximately fourty additional protocols have been signed with this agreement, and the removal of mutual visas is one of the most important of these (MESRC 2009, p.32).
The impact of Syrian refugees on Turkish social life
The increasing presence of Syrian refugees has negatively affected social life in Turkey and led to the emergence of many problems. Violence has occurred as a result of these events, and Syrian refugees undoubtedly affect the Turkish community, as many might notice that since the crises the number of criminal or violent actions has increased. Taking into consideration how crucial this factor is in terms of a country’s stability, this chapter aims to examine the problems caused by the Syrian refugees. To approach the topic, the concept of migration will be examined first. Then it is necessary to explore the causes of adaptation and the problems that might occur.
The individual or massive movement between cities, regions, and countries has extended from history to modern times. Globalization, internationalization of economy and finance, and developments in communication and transportation technologies have intensified the mobility of people between countries and long-term settlement movements called migration. International migration is accompanied by cultural adaptation that arises from the interaction with individuals from other cultures. The Syrian refugee crisis is both a form of forced migration and international migration. Considering the issue in terms of the Syrian migration and its international impact, the crisis in Syria has had a significant impact not only on the neighboring countries. The unique culture and the history of each country have made it inevitable that states respond to the matter differently – some are very motivated to help, while others close eyes on the humanitarian crises. Turkey, from this perspective, has shown great support and readiness to assist the newcomers; however, certain political, financial, and social challenges decreased the possibility of having an immediate positive outcome. Anyways, apart from its own resources, Turkey has also been assisted by other international organizations that showed support to the country that was so involved in helping solve crises of such a global impact.
Culture constitutes the weaknesses of the process of acceptance and adaptation in the social impact dimension, and the problems arising from different languages and lifestyles of asylum seekers and local people are the most important reasons for the negative reaction between them. Besides, the emergence of polygamy, the resulting divorce increase in women, the abuse of women and children, and ethnic and sectarian polarization created in some cities can be seen as one of the most crucial issues that divides Syrians and Turkish. Generally, there is a conservative-dominated culture in the border provinces in Turkey, and local people are reacting to the events. The most critical development that emerges in this direction is that old or young, single or married.
Learning the language of others can be considered to be an element that opens the door to integration and constitutes the basis of the adaptation process. In this sense, learning the Turkish language is one of the crucial issues in terms of ensuring the social cohesion of Syrian refugees. The common language that paves the way for developing common loyalty is an indispensable issue in this sense. For this reason, European and American countries have obliged immigrants to learning of the national language; this is one of the first conditions to migrate. As an example, Germany applies the requirement to pass the language test to individuals applying for a residence visa. Researchers on the immigrant groups living in Europe have shown that there is a direct correlation between learning the language of the country and the integration of individuals; this is one of the essential problems of Syrian refugees.
It cannot be denied that Turkey was affected by the Arab Spring. In response to various issues in the region, Turkey followed an “open door policy” and granted a temporary protection status to Syrian refugees. The rapid increase in human rights violations in Syria in 2012 brought about dramatic changes and increased the need for coordinated humanitarian support from the international community. Since the start of the internal confusion, strong historical and cultural ties between the countries have also been impacted; in particular, it has modified the way one sees the advantage of "open door", however, only with time. In the very beginning, all Syrian refugees were accepted. All refugees who enter the border are registered and then placed in camps. However, due to the insufficient capacities of the camps, there is a prejudice in the community that survivors living outside the camps will be able to commit crimes. The fact that Syrian refugees have different languages, cultures, and lifestyles prevents the smooth integration of Syrian refugees with Turkish society and causes various negative perceptions. Therefore, contrary to opinions created for Syrian refugees in society. As a general norm, refugees are, in the majority of cases, welcomed by their hosting country; however, this specific crisis was not followed by this outcome, and as the number of newcomers was increasing, more people showed their negative perception.
Influences of Syrian Refugees on Political Life in Turkey
As it might already be observed, the increasing number of Syrian refugees has had a negative impact on Turkey’s economic and social stability. Consequently, the consistency of Turkish politics has also been impacted. Since 2011, Turkish politicians have been closely involved in the Syrian case, and many would agree that Turkey has played a very determining role so far. As Turkey has adjusted its foreign policy according to the refugee crisis, it has negatively impacted the cooperation with other states such as Iran and Russia. In addition, the crisis has also changed the dynamic of Turkish-EU cooperation.
Despite being a long-term partner of the EU, specifically in the case of war in Syria, Turkey has had an opportunity to outline to the EU how significant this partnership might be for both parties. While in the past the majority of cases have shown how Turkey needs the EU, the Syrian war changed it from various perspectives. First and foremost, the EU needed to make sure that Turkey is able to control its borders so that the refugee streamlining to Europe was not that straightforward. Secondly, while welcoming refugees, Turkey has once and for all changed its demographic balance. As a result, travelling from Turkey to the EU has become more complex and controlled.
What is more, Syrian refugees have already impacted Turkey's domestic policy. (Binatli-Esen.2016) They have affected general and local elections, as with time, many Syrian refugees managed to receive citizenship that enabled them to participate in voting. To understand how the political situation in the country has changed, the following paragraphs will address Syrian and Turkish political tendencies before the war and after.
Syria gained independence in 1946, but democracy in the country ended in 1949 due to a military coup. This coup would not be the first coup in Syrian history; in the same year in Syria There will be suffered two more coups. As a result of a popular uprising in 1954, the army once again handed the administration to civilians. After Syria and Egypt merged in 1958, this unification destroyed the political regime and created a new type of regime, in which all power was concentrated in the President. In 1963, the Syrian Ba'ath Party took the government in a successful coup. In 1970, General Defense Minister Hafez Assad came to power, and Hafez Assad's son, Bashar Assad, came to power after the death (McHugo 2001 ). After taking office, Bashar al-Assad, who called for reform, created a positive atmosphere. This relatively "positive" atmosphere ended in 2001 with the arrest of 10 leading dissidents. Syria lived for forty-seven years under the conditions of the state of emergency, and a robust intelligence organization was established in Syria. According to Amnesty International, while women in Syria suffered discrimination and gender-related violence, according to Freedom House, the country was governed by a "non-free" oppressive regime (Amnesty International 2008). All this "political" situation prepared the conditions for the civil war.
In August 2011, the Syrian National Council was formed by the opposition forces. This is an organization based in Turkey, where there were also different political groups. In September, the first major military battle between the Free Syrian Army and the Syrian Army took place in the city of Rastan. As a result of clashes in a week, the Army of Free Syria fled to Turkey. The Syrian Army established sovereignty in the city. In October, the Free Syrian Army began to receive support from Turkey. Turkey's government established a Free Syrian Army headquarters in Hatay. (Hurriyet Daily News 2015). In this way, the Free Syrian Army became dominant in many settlements in northern Syria. Kofi Annan, acting as the Special Representative of the UN and the Arab League in Syria, took action to sign a peace agreement between the Syrian Government and the opposition forces. In this context, a ceasefire was declared on 12 April 2012 between Syria and the Free Syrian Army. However, the ceasefire was not successful (BBC News).
One of the major priorities for Turkish politics has always been to become a regional leader in the Middle East; therefore, Turkey prefers to stay in close relations with its bordering neighbors, Arab states, and other international partners. Therefore, the country found itself in complex circumstances while trying to satisfy the contradictory resolutions of the international community, Syria, and other Middle East countries. So far, Turkey has tried to carefully observe the situation and rather follow than cause the developments in Syria. Especially in Hamah Homs, Latakia, and Dayr Az Zawr, where the usage of military force exceeds the limit in suppressing the rebellion, an intensified city, which has mostly led to the influx of refugees to Turkey (BBC NEWS 2019). This situation has led to political problems between the two states. On the one hand, Turkey has supported the parallel state organizations in Syria, which the Syrian National Council. Syria's political stability and territorial integrity are essential for Turkey. Consequently. There is a newly strengthened independent predominantly Kurdish part in northern Syria. This situation will create an appropriate environment for the terrorist organization PKK / KAJEK in line with its objectives (WORLD NEWS 2019). The existence of an independent state that may occur in the territory of northern Syria, as well as the presence of oil resources in this area, will be shared. In this case, it may cause the start of their conflict over energy resources in Turkey. Turkey does not want to have any problems at the border, and this is why Syria's territorial integrity is essential for Turkey.
Syrian refugees have influenced both Turkish domestic policy and Turkish foreign policy. The civil war in Syria has turned into an international war. With a clear policy of the Republic of Turkey, three and a half million Syrians are living in Turkey now. Since the summer of 2011, Turkey has started to support the anti-Assad opposition forces. Activists and opposition leaders who are living outside Syria are given the right to hold meetings in Turkey given. On the other hand, many terrorist organizations were established. The Turkish government has been accused of helping the Al-Qaeda and Al-Nusra terrorist organizations. Many Syrian refugees were identified in these terrorist organizations, and Syria's Free Army began fighting in 2015 in Syria.
Syrian refugees play a crucial role in relations between the EU and Turkey. The EU wants to use Turkey to manage the refugee inflows to the European continent. To understand how this might apply in the political cooperation between the EU and Turkey, it is necessary to examine the EU Refugee Law:
These negative attitudes have come to the forefront most recently with the advent of the Syrian refugee crisis and the response to this crisis in both Europe and the United States. The rise of right-wing ideology and resistance to the admittance of refugees is fuelled and sustained by negative representations of refugees in the public arena, and by the popular view that refugees threaten members of the host society. (Esses 2015).
On 12 December 1999, at the European Council in Helsinki The Republic of Turkey was officially recognized as a European Union candidate at the Summit. In the European Union accession process, it has made significant changes in Turkey's refugee policy, and the changes are expected to continue until the completion of the accession process (Reports of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Turkey 1999).
Finally, signed on December 16, 2013, and entered into force on March 20, 2016, the European Union-Turkey "readmission agreement" is necessary to address. The readmission agreement is aimed at resolving the refugee crisis in Europe. The basis of this agreement, March 20, 2016, from the date of passing through, all irregular migrants will be withdrawn from Turkey to the Greek islands in the Aegean (Euro News 2019). The readmission agreement was widely discussed in the agenda on the claim that it is contrary to international law.
Syrian refugees have had a significant impact on the Turkish elections. They were used as ingredients by many parties in Turkey. Syrian refugees in Turkey are, from now on, an influential actor in determining the outcomes of Turkish elections, and the recent observations are that the impact is, unfortunately, negative. What is even more important to outline is that there is no other country in which the elections have been affected by Syrian Refugees.
Syrian refugees are subject to the political agenda of the most important aspects of Turkish politics. The most dangerous security risk posed by asylum-seekers is that the response among the local population transformed into a violent mass reaction by provocation. Small examples of this occur in almost every border province. The violent events are still taking place in Gaziantep and Kahramanmarash. This situation can also be observed in other border provinces. (Ministry Of Internal Affairs, General Directorate Of Migration Administration, 2019). The most dangerous result of the reactions from the local people is that Syrians need to organize and provide their own justice and security.
Thus, the number of Syrian refugees receiving Turkish citizenship is believed to be higher than the official sources. It is seen by the current government as the potential of Syrian voter refugees. According to information from the Grand National Assembly of Turkey on Migration and Integration Commission, the 72 thousand Syrian refugees have received Turkish citizenship, and 36 thousand of them have the right to vote (HURRIYET NEWS 2019). Moreover, this number is increasing day by day, which is treated differently by the current Turkish government and opposition, as well as by Turkish native citizens.
Conclusions
The influences of Syrian refugees were investigated in three chapters, and each ended with conclusions that showed a primary negative impact. Since 2011, Turkey has faced a growing crisis in the Syrian refugee crisis. Despite the predictions that the war might significantly impact the economic, social, and political stability in the Middle East. Many could not predict in advance that the conflict would be used as a “proxy” war region for other international interest parties and would result in international migration crises. Under the given circumstances, Turkey finds itself in the frontline and the closest country to be impacted as being seen as a bridge to the EU, as well as a country with “the open-door migration policy”.
Despite various attempts to manage the crisis and provide shelter to as many refugees as possible, financial limitations, social resistance, and our political complexity have created complex conditions for Turkey.
As a result, while trying to help Syrian refugees, Turkey has experienced a negative impact on its own stability, which in time also resulted in unrest with Turkish society and changed the state’s approach towards the crisis. To address any refugee crises, it is crucial to adjust domestic and international legal arrangements in relation to refugees, develop corresponding social policies to define a refugee, and explain how to acquire such a status.
Furthermore, it is important to ensure the smooth integration of newcomers with the local communities, which means that both Turkish and Syrians should be open to undergoing changes in the way they conduct their lives. The most crucial step to be taken in order to solve the adaptation problem of Syrian refugees is to encourage the learning of the Turkish language. As Syrian refugees learn and use Turkish, social interaction between refugees and Turkish society should increase. This situation is meant to accelerate the integration of refugees. However, the integration process should be expected to be long and sometimes even troublesome.
However, the economic burden of refugees is not enough for a state to handle. The international community should give more economic aid to Syrian refugees. Syrian refugees in Turkey are not a short-term problem; in the long run, they must be taken into consideration when this issue is important to continue active cooperation and support of the international community. It is essential that joint solutions are developed with the international community on refugees. Syrian Refugees affect both Turkey's regional and international position seriously. Against this background, Turkey has determined its role in the civil war in Syria.
The third chapter of the thesis examined how Syrian refugees played an essential role in the most recent political changes in Turkey, both domestically and internationally. As a final conclusion, the thesis aimed to outline that Turkey has played a crucial role in addressing the Syrian refugee crisis internationally and paid a sociological, political, and economic price. In response, the international community should be more open to accepting the Turkish position and assist the country in addressing the matter of Syrian refugees, and develop better procedures to make sure some refugees still have hope for a better life.
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