Conflict of Kashmir
By: Ahmet Ufuk Turan
Course: Strategic Games
Date of Submission: May 29, 2018
Introduction
The sensitivities of countries can be influenced by changes in one country, on the ratio between the loss suffered and the rate at which it is installed. Mutual commitment of the international system; social, economic, political, and ideological quality. When we examine the events, we consider how the problems will result. When we examine the Kashmir problem, we will pay attention to how to analyze it in Black Swan rules. how ordinary expectations are, how you have an extraordinary power of influence, and how people behave in unexpected events. The difference in Black Swan is to foresee unusual events. Black Swan wants to approach everything suspiciously. In a coincidental world, we think that everything. We evaluate the events after they happen. History and societies do not crawl; they make splashes. People always live with hope. The world is more linear than we thought. What we say is not important, but how we say it to people. We will examine the Kashmir issue according to these rules. First of all, we must see the Problem of Kashmir. These types of problems are strategies. The exit point of the strategy, the use of power, and the power are closely related to the instruments used for their use. Military vehicles enter the process of change in parallel with technological developments, the first order elements affecting the use of force It brings. Secondly, the acceleration of transportation of sila and open to the control, intervention, and service of all states.is the creation of a world weapons market. The contradictory policies of the governments of Pakistan and India constitute the problem of racing the international system on its side. The Kashmir problem is that in the national system of real politics is regarded as an element of instability.
PROBLEM OF THE KASHMİR
Kashmir has a place in our minds only about deaths and wars. Kashmir One of the world's most beautiful places, especially the bleeding wounds of the Islamic world, is another. Though many people are at the scene of death, many cruelties are not encountered even in the lines. Kashmir is located between India, Pakistan, and China. The people of Kashmir spent the second half of the 20th century with conflicts and wars. Kashmir has had many congenital causes for not having peace, tranquility, and stability for almost 50 years. Kashmir is one of the most important regions of the world in terms of gold, emerald, and ruby mines. Because the region is above the high mountains, it has a strategic position that can easily control the whole environment. For this reason, Kashmir has attracted the attention of many countries throughout history( Ahmad 2001, pp.31-40).
This place, renowned for its beauty and fertile lands, has become one of the regions where history lived in great tragedies. In 1947, Pakistan and India declared their independence from England. The people of Kashmir used their election rights in favor of Pakistan, according to the conclusion made. Because of the Kashmir Maharaja Harassing to sell for his country's money, he could not join Pakistan. With the Pakistani forces invading Kashmir and the Indian troops seizing various regions, the controversy over Kashmir increased, and this development made the Kashmir problem inevitable. After that date, the part that made up 30% of Kashmir was divided into Azad Kashmir, that is, free Kashmir, Pakistan, and the rest of the Kashmir Valley was divided into two under the names of Jammu and Ladakh regions. The escalation of this problem was influenced by the separatist movements of Kashmir and the accusing and refusing attitude of Pakistan towards India. India and Pakistan have not been able to reach an agreement on Kashmir in any way.
In 1948, when conflicts moved to the size of war, this region experienced the greatest human tragedy in history. Until 1955, the process was filled with troubles for the people of Kashmir. At that time, Pakistan became a member of the Baghdad Pact. India and Pakistan rooted the problem on two different sides of the bipolar world. The Soviet Government supported India's policy on the Kashmir issue, while Pakistan supported the pro-American foreign policy. In 1956, China became involved in the problem by seizing the eastern part of Kashmir. In this triangle, China came up against to with India. Thus, it was established as a natural alliance with Pakistan. Pakistan and India fought for Kashmir three times. The first of these wars were lived in 1948. The second was in 1965. Turkey has decided to support Pakistan with Iran during this period and has sent $ 5 million worth of military supplies and weapons to Pakistan. In 1999, the Kargin War was fought. Muslims were particularly damaged in this war. Fanatic Hindu groups have unleashed countless acts of torture, oppression, and tyranny in the region. In three major massacres in 1947, 1965, and 1971, tens of thousands of Kashmir Muslims were massacred, and more than 4000 women were tortured and raped. The newspapers and schools were closed, and Muslims who wanted to study religion were banned. While this decade of persecution against the Muslim people continued, the ethnic wars were fought in Kashmir( Caraing 1984).
Thousands of children were orphans. Kashmir has a population of over 13 million, and more than 90% of the people of Kashmir are Muslims. Pakistan is struggling to solve a long-standing problem. For that purpose, Pakistan proposed a referendum in accordance with UN resolutions. Despite this, India responded negatively to the proposal. By the end of 2003, Pervez Musharraf had proposed that the Indian military forces be completely withdrawn from the Himalayan region of Pakistan, but this proposal was again rejected by India. The Indian government, as a justification, showed the instability of the funnel-shaped zone and the fundamental elements that could come from Pakistan. Thus, the solution initiative, which can be initiated from one spot, has come to the fore with India's negative approach.
Kashmir has been a serious problem that has dragged India and Pakistan into war three times since 1947. To date, over 70,000 have lost their Kashmir life and more than 1.5 million Kashmiris have become refugees. Solving the Kashmir problem only through diplomatic means will provide a lasting peace. The fact that Pakistan and India once again come to Kashmir's cause can hardly cause serious damage in South Asian geography, where it is not already on a solid base. Solving the Kashmir problem only through diplomatic means will provide a lasting peace. The world public expects both sides to produce a peaceful and lasting solution to this problem, which has been around for nearly 60 years, giving up both sides' uncompromising politics and taking steps based on good citizenship and mutual trust.
This is the problem with the general reputation. While David Cameron was the Prime Minister, he said that we are the cause of many crises in the world. In September 1955, Pakistan became a member of the Baghdad Pact, and the roads of India and Pakistan were well separated. After this development, the Soviets always decided not to support India in Kashmir or Pakistan and other associations. In 1955, Khrushchev said: "The people of Kashmir have already been resolved by the people of Kashmir. The people of Kashmir see themselves as an integral part of the Republic of India ... The Soviet Government supports India's policy on Kashmir. Of course, factors such as the interests of this region and the more pro-American policy of Pakistan played an important role in Russia's decision to make such a decision: As a result of this bipolar force brought about by the Cold War era, the Kashmir issue was not resolved any further( Muhammed and Mark 1992).
In the process that started in 1956 and continued until 1962, China, which seized the Kashmir-China platos east of Kashmir and was involved in the Kashmir Problem, came to India with a natural alliance with Pakistan. Again, in 1963, Pakistan gave China a narrow area, but the friendship between China and Pakistan had already begun. China, which connects the region to China, has reached a position where it can pressurize India. Indeed, India used the phrase "a threat to peace in this region of Asia" for China.
Azad, Kashmir, Muzaffarabad's capital, was under the control of Pakistan. The two great wars between India and Pakistan, in this process, have turned this country into a family of Muslim people, whose majority of the Muslim population is controlled by India and covers 5 out of 7 regions of Kashmir. The first of these two great wars, on August 5, 1965, Pakistani soldiers, in the midst of growing tensions, in Kashmir, India, Iran, during the war, Pakistan and Turkey decided to support each other during the war. and Turkey's military value of five million dollars worth of supplies and weapons to Pakistan. The second is the Battle of Kargil, which occurred in 1999 due to border violations allegedly committed in the Kargil region. Although these wars have suffered great losses on both sides, the greatest harm has been seen by the Muslim people(Zutshi, 2017, pp.112-114).
Solving the Kashmir problem through diplomatic means can provide a lasting peace. The gathering of Pakistan and India for Kashmir once again can lead to serious challenges in the South Asian region that are not already on solid bases and can cause great distress in these most needed days. Both sides should give up their irredentist policies and take steps based on good citizenship and mutual trust to find a peaceful and lasting solution to this problem that has been going on for nearly 60 years. Based on the problem, the United Kingdom, Wilson, on the Kashmir Problem Along with Churchill's iron rhetoric, satellites of the Islamic states in South Asia subsystems a state against Soviet progress. It is thought that the purpose of establishing a defensive line is to lie down.23 In parallel, British forces were deployed to create a security against the spread of the Soviet Union and to protect the oil fields of the Middle East.
The Legal Dimension of the Kashmir Problem
Indeed, the Kashmir Problem, which is quite simple to solve in legal ways and in accordance with international resolutions, does not provide a solution as a result of the rejecting attitude of the Indian side that we mentioned earlier. Because in view of the decisions of the UN Security Council dated 1948-1949, it is clear that the people of Kashmir are entitled to appoint their own future. In addition, at the "All Jammu and Kashmir Muslim Conference", representing the overwhelming majority of the elected Muslim members of the Kashmir Assembly on 19 July 1947, due to geographical, economic, racial, religious, linguistic, cultural, and historical features of Kashmir, it was decided to join Pakistan.
In addition, on October 24, 1947, the Azad (Free) Kashmir Government was formally announced, and upon the objection of India, in 1948, a decision was taken by a popular vote that India had to accept unintentionally. Lakin could not hold a public referendum as a result of India's negative reaction. In 1953, the Kashmir Parliament, which he had mixed with India's trickery, excused and voiced the need for a popular vote. India's policy after that about Kashmir was that there was no problem in Kashmir because Kashmir was a part of India as a whole(Schofield 2011, p.47).
Analyzing
According to the black swan epistemocracia, the country should look suspiciously at everything; nothing should be definite. In unforeseen cases, positive and negative events should be distinguished from each other. The main effect is the size. It must not be followed accurately and correctly. Every opportunity, you have to catch everything that looks like an opportunity. The more opportunities you have, the more you will earn. The government's precise plans should be avoided.
Everyone sees a white swan; no one mentions a black swan. Luck is a great equalizer. The dependency should be examined as follows. In the real world, facts such as preferential dependence and cumulative advantage are often not completely independent of each other. The network increases dependencies, but there is a benefit to say. It is assumed that the variable is limited. However, there is variability in real life. It is necessary to look for the aesthetics of randomness. For example; If you look at the carpet on the floor with a microscope, you will see very tiny. If you look with a magnifying glass, you will see it bubble. If you look from a distance, you will see smooth. Proportional and statistical measures should be taken. We teach methods to people, but we do not give them practicality. İt is like developing a medicine for plants and applying it to people.
It should settle up to Black Swan. Numerous pieces of data will not bring verification, but a single piece of data may go wrong. A side hates black swans, the other side loves them. When you move according to the black swan, one side is hyper-conservative, the other side is hyper-aggressive. You are afraid to miss a chance, much less embarrassed. If a mistake in a model will benefit you, it will be very dashing; if that can harm you, you will be paranoid. For example, to miss a train, but if you run behind it will be painful.
The complexity of a field is a shame: Both of the temporal variables depend on past changes, and horizontal variables are interdependent. The interdependence between items is high. You must distinguish the negativity of the black swan from the positive. Do not confuse the fact that you are not moving with the risk.
Scenarios
1-The whole of Kashmir is occupied by India ...
The events in the region continue to increase day by day. The protest will last for years. The Indian government resorts to violence to suppress the province's protest. India can not stop the insurgents. Therefore, they start looking for new solutions. India starts to commit genocide against the Kashmiri people, and India implements against the Hindu population in Kashmir. The UN remains helpless. Pakistan wants to intervene in the events. Because 90% people of Kashmir are Muslims.India's provisions under the act. America and the UK support India. Russia and Iran support Pakistan. India will not accept UN resolutions. Therefore, India will launch a nuclear war. England and the United States intervene in the situation. UN sends an army to Kashmir. Chine protect own borders. Muslim people are still in the majority; the referendum makes the people choose Pakistan. A word from a black swan: do not give dynamite sticks to children, even if they have a warning label on their top.
2-The whole of Kashmir is captured by Pakistan...
Pakistan seizes Kashmir, Pakistan army destroys Indian forces. While India is preparing for a nuclear war, Pakistan attacks before India. Many of India's city revolves around the wreck. Russia and Iran immediately give support to Pakistan. India's weapon factories become unusable. America and Britain immediately decide to support India, but Pakistan has agreed with China. Chinese submarines and warplanes sink the American and British fleet. This is the cause of the Third World War. The history of nuclear war will live on. Allied forces will win the war. Kashmir will be left to India. Muslim folk will be spread by India. India establishes its own dominance in Kashmir. Millions of Muslims become refugees. The UN faces major challenges. India becomes a great power in Asia. A word from a black swan: If a drugstore deprivation suffers from pain, do not give him drugs.
3- If Kashmir is independent ...
The UN intervenes in the events. UN protocols are signed, and Kashmir is first brought under UN power. After having been under UN power for a certain period of time, used by great powers, Kashmir is divided into four parts by the UN decision. One of the parts depends on Pakistan, one of the parts depends on India, one of the parts depends to the Chine, and one of the parts depends on Russia. Iran uses part of Pakistan through a subcontractor. The UK and the USA use part of India through a subcontractor, but the conflict continues, and the UN will have to make a referendum decision. Kashmir becomes an independent country. UN implements the Bosnia model for Kashmir. A coalition government is formed from different ethnicities. Ethnic languages of the country will become official languages. A word from a black swan: make an egg with broken eggs.
Conclusion
There are two important events in the determination of world politics. The attack in October and the collapse of the Berlin Wall. Nearly 50 people lost their lives because of the disagreement, and 1.5 million homeless. Waiting for the good intentions on both sides has given rise to insensitivity, internationalization of the issue of nuclear weapons, including the inclusion of equilibrium, and the issue of combating terrorism on the agenda of the post-9/11 world. The British left a problem everywhere they went. The English like to determine world politics. In today's politics, the actor is generally seen as the United States. We must understand that it is not who the weapon is, but who is holding the gun. It is necessary to look at it from a broad perspective. From 1956 until 1962, the Beijing administration, which had a border dispute with India, seized the Aksai-Chin plateau east of Kashmir and was involved in the Kashmir problem. The Chinese government, which occupied Tibet in 1959, was beside Pakistan on Kashmir. Pakistan's provision of a narrow area in Kashmir to China in 1963 reinforced the rapprochement between the two countries. The construction of a road linking Beijing with the region led to a rise in pressure on India( Roy 2011, pp.55-57)
The Indian government, which worried that China was a bad example of trying to solve the border dispute in the Himalayas by war, and the domino effect in the region, solidified its Kashmir policy. He increased his military presence in the district. India's then Prime Minister Cevahiral Nehru'nun also expressed from time to time the people of his own future to determine the place of thought that Kashmir completely belonged to India's unconventional policy has left.
The New Delhi administration viewed the independence movements that emerged in East Pakistan as an opportunity to seize the superiority of the region and supported it closely. The loss of Pakistan's war with India in 1971 accelerated Bangladesh's independence. The Simla Peace Treaty was signed after the war, and the "Border Control Line" was established to provide a ceasefire in Kashmir. The tension created by the Cold War era has increased the region's armed races. Pakistan's proximity to the US has made the Soviet Union one of India's most important arms suppliers, pushing Kashmir to stand beside India. Russia continued to be India's most important arms supplier after the 1990s.
While the two countries were fueling the ineffectiveness of waiting for the first step of a well-intentioned policy change from the other side, the tension between the Hindus and the Muslims was not lacking in the region as a result of mutual incitement. The meeting softened relations with President Pervez Musharraf in 2004 to explain that they would not offer any preconditions for dialogue with India. The most important step towards normalization was taken in January 2005 with the opening of a road linking Kashmir to India under Pakistan control. Significant progress has been made in resolving the problem with the joint declaration of the parties, which was signed in 2005, which states that the peace process is irreversible. However, the deaths of 173 people in 2008 and the Mumbai terrorist attack, which resulted in the injuries of 308 people, rebounded. India has accused the Pakistani government of not pursuing an effective and sincere policy of fighting terrorism.
As a result, with the inclusion of nuclear weapons and the fight against terrorism, which entered the world's agenda after 9/11, the Kashmir problem emerged from the region as an international problem. The Kashmir issue continues to be a source of tension between India and Pakistan.
Bibliography
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